The Hidden Dangers of the Iran War
Plus: Joe Kent's resignation and the GOP's fracturing coalition.
We’re entering a new phase of the Iran War. It appears that targeted military attacks have slightly declined in frequency. But now we seem to be caught in escalating exchanges against energy infrastructure: both sides in the conflict are targeting natural gas facilities and fighting for control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The administration’s calculus seems to be that we can take out some infrastructure without anything more than a manageable, short-term spike in oil prices. But the reality is that if oil exports remain disrupted for long enough—if the exchanges destroy significant production capacity or if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—there will be serious consequences at home. When it comes down to it, American voters are simple: If fuel is six dollars per gallon, if the price of groceries rises, and if there is anything resembling gas lines in the future, it’s game over for the Republican Party in the midterms.
The best hawk case for intervening in Iran was that our intervention would be wrapped up quickly with few economic or geopolitical consequences. But I think that view too heavily downplayed the serious geopolitical and economic risks of such a strategy—risks that, with every day that the war drags on, are beginning to seem more and more possible. That doesn’t mean we should panic. But it’s important for us to honestly assess America’s position in this fraught moment and figure out how to drive this war to a conclusion.
I don’t believe the correct response is to level a hysterical critique, make a scene, or burn a MAGA hat, as some podcasters have done. That’s not productive. Still, it’s clear that the administration is highly sensitive to public opinion. If the administration senses that public opinion is slipping to dangerous levels, it will change course and figure out how to declare victory and move on. The president has a track record of being responsive; he’ll turn on a dime if he believes that it’s necessary, with no hint of hesitation or embarrassment. And as the war’s geopolitical and economic downsides become ever more real, I think that we’ll see growing pressure from the Right and increasing public backlash to such an extent that the administration feels the need to adjust.
