Should We Continue Striking Iran?
Former CIA analyst Sarah Adams on the Iran War and the U.S.-Israel relationship
Over the past few months, we have been attempting to sort through all of the geopolitical complexities of the second Trump Administration.
On that subject, there’s hardly a better person to talk to than Sarah Adams, a former CIA analyst and one of the sharpest investigators in the business. On this week’s podcast, Adams explains the logic behind America’s campaign against Iran, and separates myth from reality as it relates to the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Editor’s Note: This interview took place on July 31, 2026, before news reports emerged about a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Rufo: As you’re using the skillset that you honed over many years to evaluate the Iran war, what are you looking at to try to make sense of what’s happening now? What explains our recent conduct in the war?
Adams: Part of what’s happening right now, of course, is that we had sixty days to put this ceasefire deal into place. That has obviously gone haywire—the deal is pretty much up in smoke. There have also been escalations by Iran, including an attack on Jordan, where we had casualties, and attacks on Egypt.
The unfortunate thing is that everybody thought that during these sixty days, we were going to de-escalate. The thinking was that everybody was going to sit down, come to some sort of a deal, and move on from it. Now, with these recent escalations, it’s very unclear how long this is going to be prolonged. The key things that we’re looking for as we move forward are also unclear, since we don’t seem to be at the negotiating table.
Lomez: Sarah, could we take a little bit of a step back and look at this whole situation from the perspective of why we’re in Iran in the first place? This is a question that Chris and I have tried to get to the bottom of. We understand in the abstract that Iran is an enemy. They don’t like us; we don’t like them. But I think there’s quite a bit of skepticism out there from, say, MAGA conservatives toward the idea that this is a military engagement worth pursuing for us.
I hope that, perhaps from an intelligence perspective, you can give us a bit more clarity on what exactly Iran is up to. Why are they a threat right now? What are they up to that makes them such a thorn in our side and justifies this kind of action?
